By DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN AND HEATHER R. HIGGINS

A new comprehensive national survey shows that independent voters—who voted for Barack Obama by a 52%-to-44% margin in the 2008 presidential election—are now moving strongly in the direction of the Republican Party. The survey, conducted by Douglas E. Schoen LLC on behalf of Independent Women’s Voice in late August, raises the possibility of a fundamental realignment of independent voters and the dominance of a more conservative electorate.

Today, independents say they lean more toward the Republican Party than the Democratic Party, 50% to 25%, and that the Republican Party is closer to their views by 52% to 30%. This movement comes in spite of independents’ generally negative views of the GOP—a majority of independents (54%) view the Republicans unfavorably, compared to 39% who have a favorable impression. (The poll also revealed that 48% of independents were either “sympathetic to or supporters of the tea party.”)

Get full story here.

Those scratch marks you see on the threshold of the U.S. Capitol entrance are evidence of senators and congressmen being dragged out kicking and screaming.
Advertisement

It doesn’t happen very often. They hold onto power like they cling to life itself.

Yet, already this year, it appears three sitting U.S. senators have been shown the door — in primary elections, by their own parties, no less: First came Arlen Specter, D-Pa., and Robert Bennett, R-Utah — who actually came in third in his state GOP convention.

Now it appears Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, has been upended by conservative upstart Joe Miller.

Headlines have credited — or “blamed” — Sarah Palin and voter “rage” — as if voters are merely throwing tantrums and are being led around by the nose. Some in the media also want to characterize it all as a civil war in the Republican Party.

We think voters are smarter than that. We think voters know precisely what they’re doing.

We think it’s the beginning of an uprising.

Get full story here.

Just when you thought it was safe for incumbents to go back in the polling booth, along come Tuesday’s Republican primaries. GOP Members of Congress who think they can return to business as usual if they regain the majority should pay attention.

The biggest shock came in Alaska, with incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski trailing unheralded challenger Joe Miller by roughly 1,700 votes with as many as 16,000 absentee ballots still to be counted. As a West Point grad, decorated Gulf War veteran and federal magistrate, Mr. Miller is no lightweight. But he was facing one of Alaska’s great family names, part of the GOP establishment that has dominated the state since it joined the union.

Get full story here.