Here’s the answer suggested by last Thursday’s semi-annual budget summary from the Congressional Budget Office: Stop spending so much.

CBO’s mid-year review largely reinforces the bad news we already knew—to wit, that spending has exploded since Democrats took over Congress in 2007, first with the acquiescence of George W. Bush and then into hyperdrive after Mr. Obama entered the White House.

To appreciate the magnitude of this spending blowout, compare CBO’s budget “baseline” estimate in January 2008 with the baseline it released Thursday. The baseline predicts future spending based on the law at the time. As the nearby chart shows, in a mere 31 months Congress has added more than $4.4 trillion to the 10-year spending baseline. The 2008 and 2009 numbers are actual spending, the others are estimates. As recently as 2005, total federal spending was only $2.47 trillion.

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There was always something eerie about the way the Democrats said their health-care legislation was what the American people had waited “70 years” for. Invoking the ghosts of 1939 was kind of creepy. Then when the moment in history finally arrived, history got no votes from the other party. Whatever the politics, there was something ominous about all this. One felt something else was going on.

A Pew Research Center report just out, the one that says trust in government is at an “historic low” of only 22%, looks like the something else.

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Former White House counsel Greg Craig has just signed on as an institutional Sherpa for Goldman Sachs, the iconic financial firm facing fraud charges from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Former House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt lobbies for Goldman Sachs, Visa and the coal industry. Former Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle — Obama’s first choice to head Health and Human Services — is an adviser for a lobbying firm that represents Charles Schwab, Comcast, Lockheed Martin, Verizon and a host of other corporate interests.

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As protesters rallied outside, Democrats and Republicans engaged in a battle over taxes in the Capitol, with Democrats claiming credit for massive tax cuts while Republicans accused them of actually raising taxes by hundreds of billions of dollars and breaking President Obama’s pledge to not raise taxes on the middle class.

The first volley was fired by House Democrats, who sent a missive to reporters proclaiming they have led Congress to cut taxes by more than $800 billion.

“In the midst of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, Congress and the President acted swiftly to bring relief to our nation’s families and businesses, and create good-paying jobs,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in a statement. “A critical element of that relief and recovery effort was tax cuts for the middle class and small business owners.”

Pelosi credited the $850 billion stimulus bill, saying more than one-third of it is comprised of tax relief for the middle class.

Democrats are also touting the new health care law as a tax cut because many people will get tax credits if they purchase health insurance.

Incredulous Republicans disputed the claim, saying much of what Democrats call tax cuts is actually government spending, and that the party has passed middle class tax increases and is planning more, including a potential fuel tax, a tax on those who do not purchase health insurance and a tax on expensive insurance plans.

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AMERICANS WANT ACTION ON HEALTH REFORM

• More than three-quarters of Americans (76 percent) believe it is extremely or very important to reform the way health insurance works. [85 percent of Democrats, 79 percent of Independents, 64 percent of Republicans] [KFF, 2/23/10]

• · 63 percent of Americans want lawmakers in Washington to keep trying to pass a comprehensive health care reform plan, rather than giving up on it. [ABC News/Washington Post, 2/10/10]

• · 61 percent of Americans either support the current reform proposals or want Congress to keep working toward a solution to achieve reform. [Democracy Corps, 3/9/10; Pew Research, 2/12/10]

• 58 percent of Americans say they would be disappointed or angry if Congress stopped working on health reform now. [KFF, 2/23/10]

• A recent Ipsos/McClatchy poll found that of the 47 percent who say they oppose reform, 37 percent do so because they think reform does not go far enough.  [Ipsos/McClatchy, 3/2/10]

SUPPORT FOR KEY ELEMENTS IN LEGISLATION

TAX CREDITS FOR SMALL BUSINESSES

• 72 percent say it is extremely or very important to provide tax credits to small businesses. [77 percent of Democrats, 70 percent of Independents, 67 percent of Republicans] [KFF, 2/23/10]

• 75 percent support requiring most businesses to offer health insurance to their employees, with tax incentives for small business owners to do so. [Newsweek, 2/19/10]

HEALTH EXCHANGES

• More than seven in 10 (71 percent) say it is extremely or very important to create a health insurance exchange. [78 percent of Democrats, 71 percent of Independents, 67 percent of Republicans] [KFF, 2/23/10]

• 81 percent support creating a new insurance marketplace – the Exchange – that allows people without health insurance to compare plans and buy insurance at competitive rates. [Newsweek, 2/19/10]

CLOSING THE MEDICARE DRUG DONUT HOLE

• 71 percent believe it is extremely or very important to help close the Medicare prescription drug ‘doughnut hole’. [78 percent of Democrats, 70 percent of Independents, 66 percent of Republicans] [KFF, 2/23/10]

HIGH RISK POOLS

• 70 percent believe it is extremely or very important to expand high risk insurance pools. [79 percent of Democrats, 67 percent of Independents, 61 percent of Republicans] [KFF, 2/23/10]

SUBSIDIES FOR LOWER INCOME AMERICANS

• Nearly seven in 10 (68 percent) say it is extremely or very important to provide financial help for low/middle income Americans. [88 percent of Democrats, 64 percent of Independents, 48 percent of Republicans] [KFF, 2/23/10]

• 73 percent of those surveyed support insurance subsidies for lower income families. [Ipsos/McClatchy, 3/2/10]

• 56 percent favor requiring all Americans to have health insurance, either from their employer or from another source, with tax credits or other aid to help low-income people pay for it. [ABC News/Washington Post, 2/10/10]

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“Again the President and Vice President have come to the Buckeye State to try and sell their massive job-killing government takeover of health care, but Ohioans aren’t buying it.  Instead, as we approach nearly a year of double-digit unemployment in Ohio, hard-working families are wondering why Washington Democrats refuse to abandon their government takeover of health care, their ‘cap and trade’ national energy tax, and all their government spending that will only make matters worse.

“This week members of Congress will be asked to pass the Senate health care bill with its job-killing tax hikes, its ‘Corn Husker Kickback,’ its ‘Louisiana Purchase,’ and its taxpayer funding for abortions.  Ohioans don’t want it.  The American people oppose it.  Ohio’s undecided Democrats have a decision to make.  Are they going to stand with President Obama and his fellow Washington Democrats, or are they going to stand with their constituents?’

“It is not too late to scrap this job-killing monstrosity and start over with a step-by-step approach focused on lowering costs for families and small businesses. Republicans have offered a plan to lower premiums by up to 10 percent, which is exactly what the American people want.”

NOTE: According to a recent Quinnipiac poll, 56 percent of Ohioans oppose Washington Democrats’ government takeover of health care.

Boehner represents Ohio’s 8th Congressional District, which includes all of Darke, Miami, and Preble counties, most of Butler and Mercer counties, and the northeastern corner of Montgomery County.  He was first elected to Congress in 1990.

# # # # #

In “The March of Folly,” Barbara Tuchman asked, “Why do holders of high office so often act contrary to the way reason points and enlightened self-interest suggests?” Her assessment of self-deception — “acting according to wish while not allowing oneself to be deflected by the facts” — captures the conditions that are gripping President Obama and the Democratic Party leadership as they renew their efforts to enact health-care reform.

Their blind persistence in the face of reality threatens to turn this political march of folly into an electoral rout in November. In the wake of the stinging loss in Massachusetts, there was a moment when the president and the Democratic leadership seemed to realize the reality of the health-care situation. Yet like some seductive siren of Greek mythology, the lure of health-care reform has arisen again.

As pollsters to the past two Democratic presidents, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, respectively, we feel compelled to challenge the myths that seem to be prevailing in the political discourse and to once again urge a change in course before it is too late. At stake is the kind of mainstream, common-sense Democratic Party that we believe is crucial to the success of the American enterprise.

Bluntly put, this is the political reality:

First, the battle for public opinion has been lost. Comprehensive health care has been lost. If it fails, as appears possible, Democrats will face the brunt of the electorate’s reaction. If it passes, however, Democrats will face a far greater calamitous reaction at the polls. Wishing, praying or pretending will not change these outcomes.

Nothing has been more disconcerting than to watch Democratic politicians and their media supporters deceive themselves into believing that the public favors the Democrats’ current health-care plan. Yes, most Americans believe, as we do, that real health-care reform is needed. And yes, certain proposals in the plan are supported by the public.

However, a solid majority of Americans opposes the massive health-reform plan. Four-fifths of those who oppose the plan strongly oppose it, according to Rasmussen polling this week, while only half of those who support the plan do so strongly. Many more Americans believe the legislation will worsen their health care, cost them more personally and add significantly to the national deficit. Never in our experience as pollsters can we recall such self-deluding misconstruction of survey data.

The White House document released Thursday arguing that reform is becoming more popular is in large part fighting the last war. This isn’t 1994; it’s 2010. And the bottom line is that the American public is overwhelmingly against this bill in its totality even if they like some of its parts.

The notion that once enactment is forced, the public will suddenly embrace health-care reform could not be further from the truth — and is likely to become a rallying cry for disaffected Republicans, independents and, yes, Democrats.

Second, the country is moving away from big government, with distrust growing more generally toward the role of government in our lives. Scott Rasmussen asked last month whose decisions people feared more in health care: that of the federal government or of insurance companies. By 51 percent to 39 percent, respondents feared the decisions of federal government more. This is astounding given the generally negative perception of insurance companies.

CNN found last month that 56 percent of Americans believe that the government has become so powerful it constitutes an immediate threat to the freedom and rights of citizens. When only 21 percent of Americans say that Washington operates with the consent of the governed, as was also reported last month, we face an alarming crisis.

Health care is no longer a debate about the merits of specific initiatives. Since the spectacle of Christmas dealmaking to ensure passage of the Senate bill, the issue, in voters’ minds, has become less about health care than about the government and a political majority that will neither hear nor heed the will of the people.

Voters are hardly enthralled with the GOP, but the Democrats are pursuing policies that are out of step with the way ordinary Americans think and feel about politics and government. Barring some change of approach, they will be punished severely at the polls.

Now, we vigorously opposed Republican efforts in the Bush administration to employ the “nuclear option” in judicial confirmations. We are similarly concerned by Democrats’ efforts to manipulate passage of a health-care bill. Doing so in the face of constant majority opposition invites a backlash against the party at every level — and at a time when it already faces the prospect of losing 30 or more House seats and eight or more Senate seats.

For Democrats to begin turning around their political fortunes there has to be a frank acknowledgement that the comprehensive health-care initiative is a failure, regardless of whether it passes. There are enough Republican and Democratic proposals — such as purchasing insurance across state lines, malpractice reform, incrementally increasing coverage, initiatives to hold down costs, covering preexisting conditions and ensuring portability — that can win bipartisan support. It is not a question of starting over but of taking the best of both parties and presenting that as representative of what we need to do to achieve meaningful reform. Such a proposal could even become a template for the central agenda items for the American people: jobs and economic development.

Unless the Democrats fundamentally change their approach, they will produce not just a march of folly but also run the risk of unmitigated disaster in November.

Patrick H. Caddell is a political commentator and former pollster. Douglas E. Schoen, a pollster, is the author of “The Political Fix.”

As Emanuel put it the morning of the Massachusetts election, the final judgments will depend on the final results. If the president and his chief of staff manage to salvage their ambitious campaign to overhaul health care in the next few weeks — a proposition the White House privately put at 51 percent as the month began, according to an official — then, as Emanuel said, they will be seen as smart all over again. But that 49 percent chance of failure could devastate Obama’s presidency, weaken Democrats heading into the fall midterm elections and trigger an even fiercer, more debilitating round of finger-pointing inside the administration.

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