In the Senate, the Parliamentarian, responding to questions posed by Republican leadership, has ruled that Obama must sign the Senate-passed healthcare bill (if it were to pass the House) before the Senate can vote on the “side-car” reconciliation bill.  This would effectively kill the “Slaughter Solution” posed recently that would “deem” the Senate-bill passed and move the reconciliation bill to the Senate for action.

It also significantly complicates Pelosi’s efforts to lock down wavering Democrats, particularly those with abortion funding concerns, since there is now no way to ensure that any “fix” to the Senate-bill would be enacted before the Senate-bill is signed into law. There is deep mistrust of the Senate among House Democrats this Congress, so this development makes it even more difficult to sway skeptical Dems. Sen. Sherrod Brown, a former House member, referencing this skepticism, stated, “They just need to trust that we’ll do it right and I think enough of us talking to them will help them to do that.”

Bottom Line: The Senate parliamentarian’s ruling is the single biggest setback yet to Obama and the Democrats in their year-long attempt to pass the massive, government-dictated healthcare reform package. Reid and Pelosi have proven recalcitrant on this issue and are unlikely to relent until every conceivable possibility (however unpopular it may be) has been extinguished.

In the House, the GOP Caucus passed a unilateral ban on earmarks by a voice vote yesterday, applying to the remainder of the 111^th Congress. Drawing a bright line of distinction between the current Democrat leadership and the most recent appropriations cycle which produced over 10,000 earmarks totaling $19.6 billion, Republicans have moved swiftly to approve a moratorium on all earmarks right before the annual appropriations process begins in earnest. Unlike the recent move by House Appropriations Chair David Obey to prohibit earmarks going to for-profit companies, the GOP moratorium applies to any and all earmarks.

Leader Boehner applauded the move, stating, “The earmark process in Congress has become a symbol of a broken Washington.  Today House Republicans took an important step toward showing the American people we’re serious about reform.”  Conference Chair Mike Pence added, “By standing in favor of a moratorium on earmarks…Republicans are making a clean break from the past…and a fresh start on spending in Washington.”

On the healthcare front, Rep. George Miller announced that the “side-car” (or “fix” or reconciliation) package being cobbled together in the House will now include a controversial student loan bill. Miller stated, “That’s how the reconciliation will come from the House… that’s going to be done.”  Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad responded by stating “I think it threatens the healthcare bill.  It would threaten to sink them both.”

Also, Pelosi and Hoyer have apparently decided to concede that they cannot win over pro-life Democrats with a proposed fix to the Senate-passed bill language under reconciliation, opting instead to try and woo enough other Democrats that originally voted Nay on the House bill to switch their vote on the Senate bill. Responding to questions asking if the Senate bill could pass without the pro-life Dem votes, Hoyer said, “We’re working at it and I think the answer is yes, I think we can.”

Regarding the economy, the Congressional Black Caucus had a meeting with Obama yesterday at the White House and took him to task for “not doing enough” for blacks and the poor. Rep. Jesse Jackson stated before the meeting, “While I respect President Obama, delivering victories for his political future should be the least of our worries on Capitol Hill,” a thinly veiled reference to Obama’s near constant push on healthcare reform. Senior WH aide Valerie Jarrett took a few jabs from CBC members as well. Jarrett has apparently canceled lunch plans with the CBC eight times and is slow to return their calls.

Bottom Line: As Pelosi and Hoyer abandon their attempts to cajole pro-life Dems to vote for the abortion-funding Senate bill, it is extremely difficult to see how they move the necessary 10-15 Nay votes to the Yea column they’ve lost in the process, especially considering they’re already down at least four votes due to retirements and deaths since the original vote.

At the other end of the Avenue, in an apparent sign that Obama is starting to seriously question the possibility of ObamaCare passing the House, he had WH spokesman Robert Gibbs soften his self-imposed deadline of March 18^th.  Yesterday Gibbs stated, “Our hope is to get this done as soon as possible.  If it takes a couple extra days after a year, it takes a couple extra days.”  Obama also just announced the unusual step of delaying his trip to Asia to focus on healthcare, and is now planning on leaving the 21^st.

Obama also announced the charities that will receive the booty he was awarded for receiving the Nobel Peace Prize earlier this year, dolling out between $125,000 to $250,000 to ten different charities, including donations to the Clinton-Bush Haiti Fund, the United Negro College Fund, the Hispanic Scholarship Fund, the American Indian College Fund, and AfriCare.

Bottom Line: Obama is apparently content to deviate from his “number one priority” of jobs and the economy on a daily basis at this point, though given the current state of ObamaCare and no more Nobel Prize money to award, he may have ample time in the near future to discuss the stagnant employment figures and more government social spending that’s presumably coming. Republicans contend Obama’s willingness to hastily delay is long-scheduled trip to Asia is a sign of desperation.

As Emanuel put it the morning of the Massachusetts election, the final judgments will depend on the final results. If the president and his chief of staff manage to salvage their ambitious campaign to overhaul health care in the next few weeks — a proposition the White House privately put at 51 percent as the month began, according to an official — then, as Emanuel said, they will be seen as smart all over again. But that 49 percent chance of failure could devastate Obama’s presidency, weaken Democrats heading into the fall midterm elections and trigger an even fiercer, more debilitating round of finger-pointing inside the administration.

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Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, March 6, 2010

President Obama’s proposed budget would add more than $9.7 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, congressional budget analysts said Friday. Proposed tax cuts for the middle class account for nearly a third of that shortfall.

The 10-year outlook released by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office is somewhat gloomier than White House projections, which found that Obama’s budget request would produce deficits that would add about $8.5 trillion to the national debt by 2020.

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According to the Washington Post, the deal negotiated between Union leaders and the White House would include only a “temporary” exemption on the 40% tax  on Health Care plans. However, that temporary period is not defined.

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